This is not arbitrage
Arbitrage locks a spread. This is a probability bet with fat tails: damage, a stricter grader, a 45-day lockup, and a 13% haircut when you sell. Community tracking on unscreened cracks lands somewhere near 30% higher, 35% same, 30% lower, 5% damaged. The people who beat that mix only shoot at fat 10-premiums with a reason the first grade was wrong.
Three theses that can be +EV
01
Company mismatch
A strong BGS 9.5 (especially with a 10 sub) or an SGC/CGC 10 on a card the market prices as a PSA card. PSA 10 still prints the check. Try crossover first on expensive copies.
02
Era mismatch
Pre-2018 and 2019–2021 boom-era PSA 9s were often graded looser. Some of those cards are 10s under a different set of eyes. Current 9s usually are not.
03
Removable noise
Wax, fingerprints, slab haze, a scuffed holder that made surface look worse than it is. Wipe with a dry microfiber. No chemicals. Solvents are how cards get altered labels.
PSA eras
Standards move. A 9 from the boom is not the same object as a 9 from last quarter. Centering for a 10 tightened toward 55/45 in 2025.
| Era | Standard | Regrade | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2009–2014 | Looser than today | High | Some 9s present like modern 10s. Still verify centering to current 55/45. |
| 2015–2018 | Tightened | Moderate | Most 9s are honest 9s. Only crack with a removable-surface story. |
| 2019–2021 | Volume crunch, looser | High | Boom-era labels. Hit rates inflated. The card still has to look gem. |
| 2022–present | Tight, then 55/45 in 2025 | Low | A current 9 is usually a 9. Do not resubmit on vibes. |
BGS 9.5 → PSA 10
Heuristics from collector reports, not a PSA table. Use them to cap the slider, not to inflate it.
| Look | Ballpark 10-rate | Note |
|---|---|---|
| BGS 9.5, at least one 10 sub | 60–75% | Best common PSA 10 candidate if centering is honest. |
| BGS 9.5, all 9.5 subs | 45–55% | Playable only with a fat PSA 10 premium. |
| BGS 9.5 with a 9 sub | 30–40% | That 9 is usually real. Be harsher than you want to be. |
| BGS 9.0 | <15% | Almost never a 10 hunt. Pass unless the 9 is a joke grade. |
Never
Vintage where the holder is the object
Old labels, tuxedos, and pre-war cardboard. The slab is part of the artifact. A second trip can come back altered.
Anything already a 10
Nowhere to go but down. The premium exists because the plastic is closed.
Thin multiples
If the 10 is not roughly 2.5× the current slab after a sober look at comps, fees will eat you.
Visible hits through the case
Whitening, print lines, dents, bad corners. Cracking does not heal cardboard.
Sub-$80–$100 slabs
Grading + two legs of shipping + sell fees need a fat spread. Small tickets are a hobby, not a book.
You cannot say why the first grade was wrong
“It looks nice” is not a thesis. Removable wax, a dirty inner sleeve, a company mismatch, or an era mismatch is.
Cleaning
Dry microfiber. No spit, no solvents, no toothpaste folklore. If the defect is in the card, you are not going to wipe it into a 10. If you use chemicals, you are no longer grading — you are manufacturing an altered card.
How to use this site
- Name the thesis in one sentence.
- Pull sold comps for the current slab and the target 10.
- Run the desk with a 10-rate you would say out loud.
- If it is not a clear edge, sell or hold.
- If you still crack it, log buy, fees, and the new grade — including losers.