Calculator
The desk
Compare cracking to selling the slab today, after grading, shipping, and marketplace fees. Use sold comps. Cap your 10-rate. If break-even is above what you honestly see, pass.
Most 9s are 9s. Start conservative.
Verdict
Do not crack
Expected value is below selling the slab today after fees.
- EV if you crack
- $209
- EV if you sell now
- $244
- Edge vs selling
- -$34
- 10 / current multiple
- 2.7×
- Break-even 10-rate
- 33%
- All-in costs
- $107
Outcome mix
- Upgrade25%
- Same52%
- Lower20%
- Damaged3%
Default mix is conservative on purpose. If you need 60% tens to clear the math, you do not have an edge — you have a story.
Eye checklist
Fail two of these and the slider does not matter.
- 01Centering looks 50/50, not “good enough,” through the slab.
- 02Corners and edges are clean at every corner, not just the label side.
- 03Surface issue looks like wax, haze, or holder scuff — not a print line, dimple, or scratch.
- 04You have more than the seller’s two beauty shots.
- 05Comps are sold, not asking. Same parallel, same year, last 30–60 days.
- 06You can name the thesis in one sentence (era, company, or removable surface).
Crossover first
On BGS, CGC, or SGC copies you actually care about, send the card still slabbed with a minimum grade. Success rates are worse through plastic — graders get conservative — which is why people crack. It is also why expensive cards should try the reversible path first.
Log the result either way. A private P&L is the only marketing that belongs in this hobby.